As of June 20, 2025, the global coffee market is experiencing a notable downturn, with both Arabica and Robusta coffee futures prices declining sharply. This trend is primarily attributed to an improved supply outlook, particularly from major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Indonesia.
📉 Market Overview
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Arabica Coffee: The September 2025 Arabica futures contract closed at 322.30 cents per pound, marking a decrease of 10.15 cents (3.05%) from the previous day. This represents a five-month low for Arabica coffee prices.
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Robusta Coffee: The September 2025 Robusta futures contract closed at $3,891 per ton, down $264 (6.35%) from the previous session. This is the lowest price for Robusta coffee in over a year.
🌱 Supply Factors Influencing Prices
The recent price declines are largely due to favorable supply conditions:
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Brazil's Harvest: Brazil's 2025/26 coffee harvest is progressing well, with 35% of the crop already harvested as of June 11. This is in line with the five-year average, easing concerns about supply shortages.
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Increased Production in Vietnam and Indonesia: Both countries are entering their harvest seasons, contributing to an increase in global coffee supply.
🏭 Market Sentiment and Speculative Activity
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Investor Behavior: Speculative investors have been withdrawing from the coffee market, leading to increased selling pressure. This shift in investor sentiment is contributing to the downward trend in coffee prices.
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Nestlé's Outlook: Marcelo Melchior, CEO of Nestlé Brazil, has indicated that coffee prices in Brazil have fallen following a sharp speculative surge. He suggests that unless adverse weather conditions, such as frost, impact the upcoming crop, raw material prices will continue to decline.
📊 Price Snapshot (June 20, 2025)
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Arabica Coffee (New York Futures):
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September 2025: 322.30 cents/lb
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December 2025: 317.80 cents/lb
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March 2026: 313.65 cents/lb
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May 2026: 308.60 cents/lb
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Robusta Coffee (London Futures):
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September 2025: $3,891/ton
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November 2025: $3,826/ton
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January 2026: $3,775/ton
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March 2026: $3,752/ton
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🔮 Outlook
Looking ahead, the coffee market faces a delicate balance. While the improved supply outlook is currently exerting downward pressure on prices, any adverse weather events or disruptions in major producing countries could quickly reverse this trend. Market participants should remain vigilant and monitor developments closely.
