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Indian Rupee (INR) Snapshot – June 20, 2025 ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ

Sarah Johnson

 

1. Rupee Strengthens Slightly after Weekly Slide

The Indian rupee closed at ₹86.5850 per USD, modestly stronger, recovering from earlier losses. Over the week, it fell nearly 0.6%, driven by geopolitically fueled oil price increases, before recouping some ground following news that U.S. President Trump delayed any military response in the Middle East.

2. Oil & Geopolitical Influences

Brent crude prices, having surged to five‑month highs, declined over 2% as U.S. intervention in the Israel‑Iran conflict seemed less imminent providing some relief to oil-dependent India . Still, oil remains up ~4% on the week, keeping pressure on the rupee.

3. Foreign Capital & Market Sentiment

Equity markets rose Sensex and Nifty each gained around 1.3% aided by hopes for inflows tied to a major upcoming IPO, supporting the INR. That said, foreign investors trimmed their holdings in equities and bonds (selling ~$72 million as of June 18), which has moderated gains.

๐Ÿ“Š Technical Outlook & Near-Term Outlook (USD/INR)

  • Current level (₹86.59): shows slight recovery from earlier week lows (~₹86.89).

  • Support area: ~₹86.60–86.65, formed by technical consolidation and recent rebound .

  • Upside resistance: ₹86.40–86.50 further recovery could push toward this zone if oil continues down.

  • Risks: A rise in crude or renewed geopolitical tension may drag USD/INR back above ₹87.

๐Ÿ” Key Catalysts to Monitor

  1. Oil prices – Any new shocks from the Middle East will directly affect import costs and INR.

  2. U.S. India capital flows – IPO-linked foreign investment and FII activity may strengthen rupee.

  3. RBI intervention – The central bank has historically supported the rupee around ₹86.20–86.50 via direct or forward operations

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