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| Trump's pick for Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner suggested suspending the jobs report. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images |
Donald Trump’s choice to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is already drawing controversy after suggesting a dramatic change in how America receives one of its most closely watched economic updates. E.J. Antoni — the chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation and Trump’s nominee for BLS commissioner — recently floated the idea of suspending the release of monthly jobs reports, arguing that they are unreliable and should be replaced, at least temporarily, with more accurate but less frequent quarterly data.
In an August 4 interview with Fox News Digital, conducted prior to his official nomination, Antoni said that “until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data.” His remarks came just days before Trump announced Antoni’s nomination on August 11, following the abrupt firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, a Biden appointee who had been serving as BLS commissioner.
The proposal has alarmed many economists, investors, and policy experts who rely heavily on monthly employment data to gauge the health of the U.S. economy, forecast corporate earnings, and inform critical policy decisions. Critics warn that halting the monthly reports would strip markets and decision-makers of a vital real-time economic signal.
Lance Roberts, chief strategist at RIA Advisors — a firm overseeing $2 billion in assets — emphasized that employment reports are as essential to the markets as inflation data. “The markets depend on employment reports and the inflation reports and those types of things for direction,” Roberts said. “You try to suspend that data, without really good reason, that’s going to cause problems for markets.” He noted that the monthly non-farm payrolls report serves a unique function and that data revisions, while inevitable, are a normal and accepted part of economic measurement.
Roberts drew a comparison to GDP data, which is revised annually and then again every three years, without causing panic in financial markets. “Markets run real-time, they need real-time data,” he added, suggesting that the speed and consistency of the jobs report outweigh its occasional inaccuracies.
Max Stier, president and CEO of the Partnership for Public Service, also expressed concern about Antoni’s suggestion. “It is imperative that the bureau continues to report this information in a timely, unbiased way to preserve its trustworthiness as an institution,” Stier told Local press. He stressed that if Antoni is confirmed, he should work closely with the BLS’s experienced career staff to ensure that economic data remains nonpartisan and transparent.
Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, warned that slowing down the release of employment data could be particularly damaging during economic inflection points. “The biggest revisions to jobs data often happen when the economy hits a turning point — economists and economic policymakers largely understand this,” she explained. “To slow the availability of the data at such a juncture could severely hamper the ability of the Fed to conduct effective monetary policy, among other things.”
While the majority of economists oppose the idea, there are some who see merit in a quarterly reporting schedule. Irene Tunkel, chief strategist for U.S. equity strategy at BCA Research, argued that a slower reporting pace would allow the BLS to gather more complete survey data, potentially reducing the need for revisions. She added that markets could rely on private payroll data from companies like ADP to fill in short-term gaps.
However, not everyone is convinced that private data can substitute for the official BLS reports. Preston Caldwell, a U.S. economist at Morningstar, countered that private sources lack the scope and funding of the BLS and are therefore less reliable. He pointed to the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey — the primary source for monthly job creation numbers — as irreplaceable. “If markets believed the CES conveyed no useful information, they would already ignore it — no damage done. So why suspend it? There’s not a good substitute for the CES,” Caldwell wrote in an email.
Antoni’s remarks came on the heels of a disappointing July jobs report, which showed that the U.S. economy added just 73,000 jobs, far short of the 106,000 expected by analysts. Revisions to previous months also indicated that earlier job gains had been overstated. While such revisions are a normal part of the BLS’s process, they have become more frequent in recent years due to limited resources and declining response rates from surveyed businesses.
The weak report sparked criticism from Trump, who accused the agency of manipulating the numbers to make Republicans — and himself — look bad. “Our Economy is booming, and E.J. will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE,” Trump wrote on Truth Social when announcing Antoni’s nomination. Antoni echoed this sentiment, telling Fox News Digital that a lack of confidence in the data has “far-reaching consequences” for decision-makers from Wall Street to Washington.
But others say that withholding the numbers entirely could be more harmful than releasing imperfect data. Former acting Secretary of Labor Julie Su argued that “hiding the numbers just makes it that much harder to use the tools available to avoid further economic pain, prepare for what people need, and guard against a recession.”
When asked during a press briefing whether the monthly payrolls report would continue, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt reassured reporters that it would. “I believe that is the plan and that’s the hope and that these monthly reports will be data that the American people can trust,” she said.
For now, Antoni’s nomination awaits Senate confirmation. Whether his proposal to pause the monthly jobs reports gains traction remains to be seen, but the strong pushback from market experts and policymakers suggests that any move to alter the BLS’s reporting schedule would face significant political and institutional resistance.
