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| Elon Musk has long argued that falling birth rates are the greatest threat to civilization. ALLISON ROBBERT/AFP via Getty Images |
For years, Elon Musk has warned that declining fertility rates pose the single greatest threat to Western civilization. The billionaire has argued that shrinking populations could hollow out economies, weaken workforces, and ultimately undermine the West’s future. Now, governments across Europe and the US are taking bold steps to address the so-called “baby bust.”
Musk’s Warning Gains Visibility
On X, Musk recently declared: “Low birth rate is the number one threat to the West. There will be no West if this continues.” He has amplified similar concerns from commentators, saying he has raised the alarm since the early 2000s.
But while Musk and other tech leaders have spotlighted the issue, demographers stress that fertility decline has been a longstanding concern for policymakers worldwide. Pronatalist policies existed in Europe and Asia decades before Musk’s involvement.
Europe’s Wave of Pro-Natalist Measures
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France: President Emmanuel Macron has called for a “demographic rearmament.” His government is replacing low-paid parental leave with better-paid “birth leave” — several months at half salary, capped at €1,900 ($2,200) per month.
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Spain: Extended maternity and paternity leave to 17 weeks, with some regions expanding “baby check” cash bonuses.
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Italy: Introduced lifetime payroll tax breaks for mothers of two or more children, zero-interest “First Home” loans, and child allowances.
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Hungary: Granted lifetime personal income-tax exemptions to mothers of two or more children.
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UK: For the first time, parents of children as young as nine months will get 30 hours of free childcare weekly.
US Policy Shifts
In July, the US enacted the Working Families Tax Cut, expanding family tax credits and creating new savings accounts for households with children. While modest compared to European measures, it reflects a growing recognition of demographic pressures.
Demographers Push Back on Tech Leaders’ Role
Experts caution against giving credit to Musk or other tech figures for these policies.
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Ronald Lee (UC Berkeley) notes that concerns over low fertility go back to at least the 1930s in France and the 1990s in Japan.
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Tomas Sobotka (Vienna Institute of Demography) said tech leaders “have only made the issue more visible — and more politically polarized.”
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Wolfgang Lutz (Wittgenstein Centre) dismissed Musk’s warnings as “gut feelings” rather than scientific reasoning.
Other Tech Leaders Enter the Debate
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Pavel Durov, founder of Telegram, funds free IVF treatments in Moscow and has publicly called declining fertility a “serious global issue.”
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Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has invested in biotech startups like Conception, which is working on extending fertility windows and enabling same-sex biological parenthood.
Will These Measures Work?
Despite billions spent on pro-natalist incentives, results remain mixed:
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South Korea and Japan: Lavish subsidies have failed to lift birth rates.
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Scandinavia: Even with world-leading childcare and leave policies, fertility has declined.
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Estonia: Expanded family benefits initially boosted births, but first births collapsed a decade later.
Demographers argue that financial incentives are often too small compared to the full cost of raising a child. At best, policies may lift fertility by 0.2–0.3 children per woman, but not reverse overall trends.
Anna Rotkirch (Population Research Institute, Helsinki) argues that lasting solutions must extend beyond subsidies, involving employers, city planners, and cultural change. In the US, experts like Karen Benjamin Guzzo (Carolina Population Center) stress that affordable housing, universal childcare, and paid leave remain the key barriers.
The Bigger Picture
Declining birth rates are a slow-moving but profound demographic challenge. While Musk’s dire warnings may oversimplify, they have amplified a debate that policymakers cannot ignore. Whether Western governments’ latest wave of family incentives succeeds or fails, one thing is clear: the baby bust has moved from academic circles into the heart of political and economic strategy.
