When Zohran Mamdani entered New York City Hall as mayor-elect, he did so contrarian in hand — a coin showing heads with the slogan “Tax the rich and freeze rents” embossed on the back, which has become his signature accessory. They’re not leaving the city on a gilded exodus quite yet, but in ultra-luxury markets like Miami, real estate agents say what they call the “Mamdani effect” is underway — and it could further ramp up demand and pricing in Florida’s highest-end luxury districts. The exodus is more about wealthy buyers adopting precautionary measures and tax hedges than about any immediate exit from town. Agents are reporting upticks in both inquiries and closings from New York-based ultra-high-net-worth individuals considering or purchasing in Miami — even as they hold on to roots in Manhattan.
Miami’s ultra-luxury segment — homes over $5 million — was already — but new data shows that, while median prices in the overall market cooled, at the top end they rose around 8.4% year-over-year by September. That compares to a median decline of -4 %. In other words, 30 is the new 20.”]init One Miami agent put it more simply: “Every year our price points keep growing and growing. The reasoning is obvious: These buyers aren’t fleeing New York on account of Mamdani per se — they are departing ahead of schedule due to possible tax ramps, regulatory qualms, and lifestyle unknowns in Manhattan. That urgency is forcing corners of the market that were already tight to new extremes.
The key driver is the 'insurance-move' mindset. For many of the ultra-rich, New York is still an essential base — a cultural epicenter, a business hub, a social center. But a Florida residence with low taxes and a different lifestyle can make one short-tempered. The instant Mamdani’s name was announced as the victor, brokers in Miami say clients who were “on the fence” made up their minds. One Florida developer said his firm had signed over $100 million in contracts with New York buyers in the past few months — almost double last year. The trend may be young, but when the best of buyers move markets, they feel it quickly.
What it means for Miami: A possible toggle-up luxury market, or too few listings, fiercer bidding, and pricier pricing. Supply in the ultra-prime space was already limited; add a wave of speculative buyers, and you have an explosive formula for quick appreciation. “But it’s possible that as the mass-market in Miami slows or cools, the trophy portion accelerates.” Paradoxically, New York’s ultra-luxury market is holding on as well — buying hasn’t disappeared completely, but the stance is changing: multiple-home ownership, dual bases, increased exposure in Florida.
Of course, risks remain. Not all of the New York ultra-wealthy will decamp, some analysts warn, and most will maintain their Manhattan spots despite local politics. Not all buyers are saying they’re doing so because of Mamdani — instead, they’re responding to a variety of tax and lifestyle shifts. And just because there is an uptick in inquiries doesn’t mean that closures are sustained. Policies in New York are still taking shape, and real capital often waits until laws pass before acting.
But for now, the message is: one city’s election result is reverberating through another city’s luxury market. And Miami, long the favored backup destination for well-off New Yorkers, may find its ultra-luxury segment moving faster than planned. The politics of New York, in other words, are now extending into its skylines — with ramifications for pricing, supply, and value at this very top end of the market.
