Home
Commodities
Markets

Aluminum Market Today: Spot Premiums Stable Despite Price Dip 🏭

Sarah Johnson

 

📌 Market Highlights – June 20, 2025

  • Stock & Premiums: Over the weekend, spot premiums in China remained stable thanks to pre-weekend stockpiling, even as domestic ingot inventories dropped to ~312,500 tonnes a 0.45 Mt drawdown listed by SMM.

  • Price Movement: SMM reports a drop in the SHFE aluminum benchmark (~50 yuan/ton decline to 20,720 yuan/ton), while three-month LME aluminum futures opened at $2,493 → closed higher around $2,521 thanks to stock drawdowns mitigating price weakness.

🔍 Key Drivers Behind Today’s Aluminum Signals

Supply Tightness vs. Price Pressure

  • Stockpile reductions in China reveal subtle tightening, supporting spot premiums despite broader price softness .

  • Yet, mid‑week dips in SMM ADC12 and other aluminum alloy prices highlight prevailing downward pressure.

Trade Policies & Tariffs

  • Canada’s new counter-tariffs on steel and aluminum aim to shield domestic industries from global oversupply especially after U.S. doubled tariffs to 50%.
    These moves introduce further complexity across metals markets, including aluminum.

Demand Trends

  • China’s consumption remains resilient, with a projected 2.4% YoY increase in 2025. Exports spiked (~32,000 Mt in May, +137% MoM) while imports softened (~223,000 Mt, –11% MoM).

🤔 What This Means for Stakeholders

  • Producers & Smelters: Shouldering weak domestic prices but buoyed by tight spot premiums timing shipments and inventory carefully could preserve margins.

  • Buyers & Fabricators: Lower benchmark prices offer entry opportunities, but narrow premiums may limit savings.

  • Traders & Investors: Keep an eye on weekend stock moves, tariff developments, and SHFE/LME spreads all signal short-term risk and reward.

🔮 Outlook for the Aluminum Market

  • Short Term: Any further stock draws could support spot premiums and stabilize prices. But weakening alloy prices and uncertain trade dynamics may keep pressure on LME benchmarks.

  • Medium Term: Tariff policies, especially those evolving from U.S.–Canada standoffs, could reshape regional flows and costs.

  • Long Term: Sustained growth in China's new energy and EV sectors may drive demand, gradually shifting sentiment from current softness to tightening fundamentals.

Post a Comment