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Sugar Market Snapshot: Bearish Trends but Price Rebound Hints at Stabilization 🍬

Sarah Johnson

 

📊 Today's Sugar Futures Data (June 20, 2025)

  • ICE Sugar (New York): As of 10 AM, trading volume dropped to 84,521 contracts (from 150,868 on Wednesday), with open interest slightly decreasing to 884,680 contracts.

  • Spot Price Movement: Sugar futures climbed to 16.16 ¢/lb, up by 1.54% from the previous day.

  • ZCE (China): September sugar futures closed up 58 yuan (~$8.09) at 5,720 yuan/ton, with trading volume reaching 352,079 lots.

📉 Market Dynamics: Supply Overhang vs. Technical Buying

Weak Supply Outlook & Price Pressure

Earlier this year, a bearish outlook prevailed. USDA projected a 7.5% increase in global sugar ending stocks for 2025/26, driving prices down from four-year highs.

Signs of Stabilization

  • Technical Trading: Today’s uptick in ICE futures reflects short-covering and pre-quarter-end positioning.

  • Import Demand: Pakistan’s move to import sugar to manage domestic shortages added upside pressure.

  • Local Price Support: In India, ex-mill prices dipped ₹10–20/quintal but remain supported amid lean season stock depletion.

🌍 Global Implications & Outlook

  • Oversupply Risks: With higher projected global stockpiles, market bears may recapture momentum soon.

  • Buyer Intervention: Countries like Pakistan and domestic buyers stirring demand provide temporary support.

  • Seasonality Effects: As lean production seasons unfold, supply tightness may surface, especially regionally.

🔍 What to Watch

  • USDA Reports & ISO Updates: Any revisions to production/stock forecasts could swiftly impact prices.

  • Major Import Decisions: Moves by Pakistan and neighboring importers will influence short-term trends.

  • Climate Conditions: Adverse weather in Brazil or India could reverse the bearish narrative suddenly.

📝 Key Takeaways

  • Daily trading shows lower volume but positive price movement due to technical factors.

  • Oversupply looms globally, yet import needs and domestic cycles are providing temporary balance.

  • Stakeholders from refiners to investors should stay alert to quarterly reports and weather alerts.

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