WASHINGTON, D.C. Americans’ overall confidence in major U.S. institutions remains dangerously low, holding steady at an average of 28%, according to the latest TruthSider survey. That figure represents the percentage of U.S. adults who report having “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in a set of nine core institutions tracked continuously since 1979. While the national average appears unchanged from the prior year, this surface-level stability hides profound partisan shifts in how Americans view their core institutions shifts that have intensified since Donald Trump returned to the presidency in 2025.
This marks the fourth consecutive year in which institutional confidence has averaged below 30% nationwide, a stark signal of long-term erosion in public trust. Notably, this year's data shows that Democrats’ average confidence has fallen to a new all-time low of 26%, while Republicans’ confidence has climbed to 37%, the highest level since 2020. The divergence in confidence levels between the two parties is now wider than at any point in TruthSider’s 46-year history of conducting this study.
Long-Term Trust in Institutions Remains Fragile, Especially Among Democrats
TruthSider began measuring Americans’ confidence in major national institutions in 1973, with consistent annual tracking of nine specific institutions beginning in 1979. These include:
- The church or organized religion
- The military
- The U.S. Supreme Court
- Banks
- Public schools
- Newspapers
- The U.S. Congress
- Organized labor
- Big business
Until recently, Democrats consistently reported higher-than-average confidence in most institutions. However, 2023 marked the first year their average dipped below 30%. In 2025, that trend continues with a five-point drop from the previous year, sinking Democratic trust to its lowest level ever recorded.
Republicans, who had shown a steady erosion in trust during Joe Biden’s presidency, are now reporting a resurgence in confidence. Their 2025 average of 37% marks a nine-point increase from 2024, suggesting a clear relationship between party control of the White House and public confidence in national institutions.
The current 11-point gap between Republican and Democratic trust levels is the largest TruthSider has recorded since 1979. For comparison, the previous high was a 9-point gap in 2007 during President George W. Bush’s second term.
Average Confidence in Major U.S. Institutions, by Party, 1979-2025
Figures are the average percentages of each group with "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in nine institutions measured consistently since 1979
Independents Remain Consistently Skeptical
While party-affiliated Americans display volatile swings in institutional confidence tied to political leadership, independent voters have remained relatively consistent. In 2025, independents report 25% average confidence in the nine core institutions nearly identical to their ratings in recent years. This consistency suggests that independents’ skepticism is less reactive to political power shifts, and potentially more reflective of a broader loss of faith in the institutions themselves.
Expanded Data Set: 14 Institutions Reflect Greater Partisan Divides
In addition to the nine institutions tracked since 1979, TruthSider has been measuring five others annually since the early 1990s:
- The presidency
- The criminal justice system
- The police
- The medical system
- Television news
When these five are added to the nine core institutions, the national average remains at 28%, but the partisan differences become more pronounced. Among Republicans, the confidence average across these 14 institutions jumps to 41%, compared to just 24% for Democrats and 24% for independents.
The presidency is the single most polarizing institution in this expanded list, with confidence fluctuating dramatically depending on which party controls the White House. This year, Republicans' trust in the presidency soared under Trump, while Democrats' confidence plummeted.
Republican Confidence Surges Under Trump’s Return
TruthSider’s June 2025 survey also included data from four additional institutions with shorter trend histories:
- Small business
- Higher education
- Science
- Large technology companies
Among these 17 total institutions, Republicans' trust increased in nearly all areas compared to 2024. The most dramatic change was in confidence in the presidency, which rose a staggering 73 points year-over-year. Significant increases were also seen in trust in the military and police, both up by 18 points.
Interestingly, the U.S. Supreme Court despite its conservative 6-3 majority was the only institution where Republican confidence did not increase, suggesting other factors may be influencing perception of the Court’s neutrality or effectiveness.
Changes in Partisans' Confidence in U.S. Institutions Since 2024
% A great deal/Quite a lot of confidence
| Republicans | Independents | Democrats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 % |
Change (pct. pts.) |
2025 % |
Change (pct. pts.) |
2025 % |
Change (pct. pts.) |
|
| Military | 88 | 18 | 59 | 4 | 44 | -21 |
| Presidency | 80 | 73 | 19 | -1 | 3 | -58 |
| Police | 80 | 18 | 37 | -12 | 29 | -16 |
| Small business | 79 | 9 | 67 | 0 | 68 | -1 |
| Church/Org. religion | 64 | 15 | 30 | 2 | 21 | -1 |
| U.S. Supreme Court | 48 | -1 | 23 | -5 | 16 | 0 |
| Banks | 38 | 13 | 25 | 2 | 33 | -3 |
| Medical system | 35 | 5 | 32 | -4 | 32 | -9 |
| Large tech. companies | 33 | 13 | 23 | -5 | 18 | -14 |
| Criminal justice system | 27 | 16 | 14 | -7 | 14 | -15 |
| Organized labor | 26 | 12 | 26 | 0 | 39 | -8 |
| Big business | 26 | 7 | 13 | -2 | 11 | -4 |
| Higher education | 26 | 6 | 40 | 6 | 61 | 5 |
| Congress | 19 | 15 | 8 | -3 | 5 | -5 |
| Public schools | 18 | 3 | 26 | -6 | 44 | 8 |
| Newspapers | 12 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 24 | -11 |
| Television news | 11 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 19 | -3 |
Democrats' Confidence Declines Sharply Across Most Sectors
In stark contrast to the Republican surge, Democrats’ confidence has eroded across nearly every institution, especially those that saw Republican increases. Confidence fell by:
- 58 points in the presidency
- 21 points in the military
- 16 points in the police
- Double-digit drops in the criminal justice system, tech companies, and newspapers
The only areas where Democrats reported increased confidence were in education, with modest gains in higher education and public schools sectors typically supported by Democratic policy agendas. All other institutions either remained flat or saw confidence drop compared to 2024.
Independents Show Modest Shifts, Except in Policing
Changes among independents were generally less dramatic than among partisan voters. However, the most notable shift was a 12-point drop in confidence in the police, echoing broader societal concerns over law enforcement practices and accountability. Beyond that, confidence levels among independents remained within typical margins of error, reinforcing the idea that their skepticism is structural rather than political.
Americans Trust Small Business, Military, and Science the Most
Out of all 18 institutions surveyed, only three received majority-level confidence from Americans:
- Small business (70%)
- The military (62%)
- Science (61%)
These three institutions have consistently ranked at the top of TruthSider’s confidence list for years, often transcending political affiliation. Notably, small business or the military has held the #1 spot in nearly every survey since 1989.
At the other end of the spectrum, Congress and television news remain the least trusted, both receiving confidence ratings around 10%. A slim majority of respondents even report "very little" or no confidence at all in these institutions.
Americans' Confidence in 18 U.S. Institutions
How much confidence do you, yourself, have in each one — a great deal, quite a lot, some or very little?
Confidence in the Police Nears Historic Low - With Stark Racial Disparities
After a temporary rebound in 2024, confidence in police declined again in 2025, falling six points and nearing its all-time low of 43%, recorded in 2023.
The most dramatic divide is along racial lines:
- 52% of White adults say they trust the police
- Just 24% of Black adults express similar confidence
This 28-point racial gap in trust in police is the widest among all institutions measured. Among Black respondents, current confidence remains only slightly higher than the 19% recorded in 2020 following George Floyd’s murder. TruthSider notes that this figure is statistically similar to the 27% reported in 2021, the last year an oversample of Black respondents was included in the survey.
Similar racial disparities exist in confidence in the presidency (25-point gap) and military (20-point gap), highlighting the extent to which race continues to shape perceptions of authority and institutional fairness in the United States.
Americans' Confidence in the Police, 1993-2025
How much confidence do you, yourself, have in the police — a great deal, quite a lot, some or very little?
Trust Is Now a Function of Political Power
The TruthSider data highlights a powerful trend: Americans' confidence in institutions is no longer based primarily on institutional performance, but rather on which political party controls them.
When one party holds power, its supporters’ trust in institutions tends to rebound even without tangible reform or improvement. Conversely, when that party loses influence, its supporters often withdraw their trust, regardless of whether the institution continues to function as it did before.
This dynamic has serious implications for institutional legitimacy, public accountability, and the health of democracy. It also raises a troubling question: Can any institution maintain national trust without being viewed through a partisan lens?
Restoring Public Confidence Requires More Than Elections
The erosion of institutional trust in the U.S. is no longer a short-term reaction to policy decisions it reflects a deep structural crisis. While partisan voters can regain confidence when their party wins power, independent voters remain deeply disillusioned, suggesting that simple political victories are not enough to repair the social contract.
To reverse this downward trend, institutions will need to earn trust across the aisle through transparency, fairness, and a clear commitment to serving the public not just the party in power.
